A study by Zero Carbon Analytics reveals that extreme weather events repeatedly drive up prices of vegetables, fruits, and meats in France. Analyzing climate mechanisms, satellite data, and predictive models to anticipate impacts on our food.
Climateflation: How climate change affects our grocery bills
In 2025, prices of tomatoes, apples, and beef surged by several percentage points during the first heatwave that struck southwestern France, according to a study by Zero Carbon Analytics. This phenomenon, dubbed "climateflation", shows how climate change directly impacts consumers' wallets.
What the study reveals: Recurrent price hikes linked to extreme climate events
The analysis covers over 3,000 sales points across metropolitan France from 2018 to 2025. Researchers observed that each intense heatwave, prolonged drought, or heavy rainfall event led to notable increases in food prices, particularly short-cycle vegetables like tomatoes and zucchinis, seasonal fruits, and meat products.
Price increases are not isolated events; data shows a rising trend each time a climate anomaly occurs, creating a cumulative effect that fuels sustained inflation in staple products. The study also notes that regions most exposed to heatwaves, such as Occitanie and Nouvelle-Aquitaine, experience the most significant price increases.
How the study was conducted: Methodology combining satellite data, AI models, and ground observations
Zero Carbon Analytics combined atmospheric data from Copernicus network and ECMWF system with retail price records. Satellite imagery mapped the extent and intensity of droughts and heatwaves, while predictive models like GraphCast and Pangu-Weather, powered by neural networks, estimated the forecast uncertainty of extreme events.
The machine learning process integrated over 10,000 variables, including soil temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation, to create a predictive model linking climate conditions to price variations. The approach also incorporated retail sales data to calibrate economic effects, ensuring a robust correlation between weather anomalies and price increases.
Scientific explanation of the phenomenon
The link between climate and food prices is primarily due to crops' biological sensitivity to climate factors. Rising average temperatures accelerate evapotranspiration, reducing soil water availability. When drought sets in, plants experience water stress, limiting photosynthesis, and ultimately impacting yields.
