Nearly 94% of the warming expected when the global average reaches +1.5°C is already being felt today in many areas, according to a recent analysis of climate data. This proportion even exceeds estimates for a +2°C scenario, where 65% to 76% of the projected warming would already be present. In other words, certain parts of the globe are already experiencing the conditions of a climate that, according to conventional scenarios, should not manifest for several decades.
What the study reveals: regional temperatures already close to the +1.5°C threshold
The study, conducted by an international team and published in Nature Climate Change, compares temperatures observed in 2025 with warming projections associated with the IPCC's +1.5°C and +2°C scenarios. Researchers found that, in 2025, regional temperature anomalies were statistically indistinguishable from those expected in a world where the global average had increased by 1.5°C relative to the pre-industrial era. This finding rests on confidence intervals that overlap the two datasets, underscoring that, for many regions, the "tipping point" has already been crossed.
The regions identified as the most advanced in this process include parts of South Asia, Southeast Asia, South America, and sub-Saharan Africa. In these areas, annual mean temperatures have already reached 90% to 94% of the heat gain projected at +1.5°C. Temperate zones, notably in Europe and North America, show intermediate values, with 65% to 76% of the warming expected at +2°C already present. These figures are derived from a direct comparison between observed time series and climate simulations from reference models such as ECMWF and the Copernicus system.