Nepal: Impact of Warming on the Himalayas and Water for 2 Billion
After the mountain tsunami that struck Nepal at the end of August, the country demands accountability from major polluters. The Himalayas, the 'third pole,' feed 2 billion people; the climate crisis threatens this vital pillar.
A devastating landslide in Nepal's mountains at the end of August resulted in thousands of casualties, a brutal reminder that climate warming is no longer an abstraction. In less than 48 hours, authorities demanded accountability from the United States, Europe, and China, accusing them of fueling the accelerated melting of Himalayan glaciers.
Announcement Details: Who, What, Precise Figures
The Nepalese government published an official statement calling on the international community to immediately fund hydrological resilience projects. It reminded that the Himalayas, known as the 'third pole,' store more than 10% of the world's freshwater and that its melting threatens the water supply of nearly 2 billion people, half of whom live in Southeast Asia. The country cited the CO₂ emissions of the United States, the European Union, and China as the main causes of the thermal anomaly observed since 2020.
According to satellite data from Copernicus, the Himalayan glacier surface has retreated by 12% since the beginning of the decade, a rate higher than the global average. The Nepalese ministry requested that ECMWF provide high-resolution predictive models to anticipate future glacial floods and adjust evacuation plans.
Context: Climate Objectives at Stake, Current Situation
The warming of the Himalayan region is far above the global average of 1.2°C, with peaks of +2°C recorded in recent summers. Artificial neural networks trained on atmospheric data from NASA and Copernicus now allow for projections of glacier volume loss with a reduced prediction uncertainty of ±5%. These AI models, such as GraphCast and Pangu-Weather, integrate variables like surface temperature, snow albedo, and precipitation fluxes to generate melt scenarios up to 2050.
ECMWF model projections indicate that without drastic emission reductions, the high mountain zone could lose up to 30% of its glacial volume by 2100. This loss would gradually decrease the flow of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra rivers, putting the water security of several riparian countries at risk. Despite being ambitious, the Paris agreements are insufficient to protect this 'third pole,' underscoring the urgency of Nepal's demands.
Scientific Explanation of the Phenomenon
Climate warming affects Himalayan glaciers through two main mechanisms. On one hand, the increase in air temperature reduces the duration of the snow season, limiting the annual rebuilding of the snow cover that feeds the glaciers. On the other hand, the rise in surface temperature accelerates glacier melt.
