Fire in Aspe Valley: 105 hectares burned, fire still active and weather forecasts

Since Wednesday, flames have already consumed 105 hectares of vegetation in the Aspe Valley, at the heart of the Pyrénées-Atlantiques. The fire did not advance during the night from Saturday to Sunday, but it remains active, forcing rescue teams to stay on maximum alert.

Fire in Aspe Valley: extent, evolution, and ground actions

The official report from the prefecture indicates that the 105 hectares affected are mainly composed of pine forests and maquis, environments very sensitive to fires during drought periods. The departmental firefighters, reinforced by teams from the Civil Security, have established a security perimeter around the fire to protect the homes located on the edge of the valley. The firefighting operations include the use of rapid intervention vehicles, mobile water lines, and aerial retardant drops, although wind conditions make these less effective.

Local authorities have set up a continuous monitoring system using Copernicus satellite data, which allows for real-time detection of hotspots. These observations are integrated into the prefecture's dashboard, where officials can visualize the evolution of the fire and adjust resources accordingly. In parallel, the regional natural risk prevention service has triggered the « Fire » emergency plan, which provides for the preventive evacuation of the most exposed areas if the situation worsens.

The fire remains confined to forest areas, but the topography of the valley, with its narrow ravines and steep slopes, creates microclimates conducive to rapid fire propagation. Easterly winds, which regularly blow at 15-20 km/h, can carry embers several kilometers away, increasing the risk of new fires starting. Rescue services are therefore closely monitoring the uncertainty in predicting these winds, which remain difficult to model precisely.

Meteorological mechanisms fueling the fire: drought, heat, and AI models

The current situation is occurring within a context of prolonged drought, exacerbated by temperatures above seasonal averages. According to Météo France, recent maximum temperatures have exceeded 30°C, while precipitation has been virtually nil for over three weeks. This combination creates significant soil moisture deficit, making vegetation extremely flammable. ECMWF weather forecasting models, fed with high-resolution atmospheric data, indicate that this trend is likely to continue at least until the end of the week.

To refine fire risk forecasts, scientists use predictive models based on machine learning. Neural networks such as GraphCast and Pangu-Weather, trained on decades of satellite and ground data, allow for better estimation of forecast uncertainty.