An El Niño of an intensity never seen since records began triggers a widespread rise in temperatures, placing 2026 among the hottest years ever recorded according to the World Meteorological Organization's annual bulletin. Satellite data show heat anomalies spreading rapidly from the equatorial Pacific to the mid-latitudes, putting global climate systems under stress.
Unprecedented El Niño: record intensity and most affected areas
The phenomenon is characterized by an exceptional rise in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. According to ECMWF models and Copernicus observations, these temperatures have reached levels exceeding previous records, even though precise values remain unpublished. This oceanic heat fuels ascending air currents that modify global atmospheric circulation, leading to climate impacts felt as early as July.
In South America, the coastal regions of Peru and Ecuador are already experiencing episodes of intense rainfall, while interior parts of Brazil see their daytime temperatures rising above seasonal norms. In Europe, Météo-France reports that heat waves extend from southern France to Mediterranean basin countries, with maximum temperatures exceeding local records by several degrees.
AI models, notably GraphCast and Pangu‑Weather, trained on decades of atmospheric and satellite data, anticipated the propagation of these anomalies with accuracy superior to traditional models. These neural networks, fed by real-time data, enabled identification as early as June of areas where heat would be most pronounced, thus giving forecasting services additional lead time to alert populations.