Nearly 8 million children, a 30% increase from previous estimates, are at risk of acute hunger in East and Southern Africa by early 2027, according to an analysis by Save the Children. This dramatic rise is attributed to one of the most intense El Niño phenomena observed in recent decades, which disrupts rainfall patterns and directly threatens crops.
El Niño 2026-2027: forecasts and most exposed regions
Predictive models from ECMWF, bolstered by neural networks such as GraphCast and Pangu-Weather, anticipate above-average intensity for the El Niño that began in the autumn of 2026. By combining Copernicus satellite data with historical series, these machine learning systems reduce prediction uncertainty by several weeks, enabling identification now of regions where ocean surface temperature anomalies will exceed 2°C above normal. The most exposed areas include Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, where models indicate an annual precipitation decrease of 20 to 35%.
According to weather models, the warm phase of El Niño is expected to persist until the first quarter of 2027, with a 70% probability of a compensatory 'La Niña' event in the following months. This sequence could create a double shock: first prolonged drought, then too-late rains for staple crops like maize and millet, crucial for local food security. While uncertainty predictions are reduced thanks to AI, they remain high in transition zones where local phenomenon effects are hardest to quantify.