How the Mediterranean Can Generate Tropical Cyclones and Why Climate Change Worsens the Threat

In March 2026, Tropical Storm Jolina struck North Africa, causing significant damage. This phenomenon, once rare in the Mediterranean region, confirms a worrying trend: the Mediterranean basin can now generate tropical cyclones comparable to those in the tropics. Storms Ianos in 2020 and Daniel in 2023, in particular, caused severe devastation in Greece and Libya, with a dramatic human toll in Derna where several thousand people were reported missing or declared dead.

The Mediterranean, a New Hotspot for Tropical Cyclones

Traditionally, tropical cyclones form in the warm oceans of the tropics. However, recent observations and scientific studies show that the Mediterranean basin can also produce "hybrid" or tropical storms capable of generating violent winds and extreme precipitation. The Jolina event, which occurred in March 2026, illustrates this capability. These storms can develop when the sea surface temperature exceeds a critical threshold, generally around 26-27°C, a condition increasingly frequent in the Mediterranean due to global warming.

Why and How Do These Cyclones Form in the Mediterranean?

The formation mechanism of a tropical cyclone relies on strong evaporation of warm water, which feeds a low-pressure system with energy. In the Mediterranean, the combination of high ocean temperatures, an unstable atmosphere, and favorable weather conditions, such as weak upper-level winds, can trigger tropical cyclogenesis. The phenomenon is however complex because the basin is smaller and the topography more varied than in the tropics, which influences the trajectory and lifespan of cyclones. Advances in modeling, notably thanks to neural networks and satellite data, now allow better understanding and forecasting of these atypical events.

Climate Change Intensifies the Cyclone Threat in the Mediterranean

The warming of the Mediterranean Sea surface is faster than the global average, accelerating the frequency and intensity of Mediterranean tropical cyclones. Researchers emphasize that this phenomenon is linked to greenhouse gas emissions that increase ocean water temperatures. As a result, storms like Daniel, which caused a humanitarian disaster in Derna in 2023, are becoming more frequent and more violent. The climate risk worsens because these storms bring intense rainfall, favoring flash floods and landslides in often poorly prepared areas.

The Socio-Economic Consequences of Mediterranean Cyclones

Beyond tragic human losses, Mediterranean tropical cyclones cause considerable damage to infrastructure, especially in densely populated coastal urban areas. Ports, transportation networks, as well as water and energy supply systems are particularly vulnerable. For example, the 2023 Daniel storm caused prolonged paralysis of infrastructure in Derna, complicating rescue operations and reconstruction. Moreover, local agriculture, often essential to the regional economy, suffers major losses due to flooding and crop destruction. These economic impacts exacerbate the vulnerability of local communities, often already fragile, highlighting the need for better preparedness and increased resilience against these extreme events.

Challenges of Forecasting and Risk Management

Faced with the rise of Mediterranean cyclones, the ability to forecast their formation and trajectory becomes a crucial issue. Classical weather models, adapted to traditional tropical cyclones, must be adjusted to the Mediterranean context, characterized by more complex atmospheric dynamics. The integration of artificial intelligence and neural networks into forecasting systems now allows improved alert accuracy, thus reducing intervention delays. Furthermore, risk management requires strengthened coordination between national and local authorities, as well as increased awareness among exposed populations. The implementation of effective evacuation plans and weather-resistant infrastructure is essential to limit human and material losses during future storms.

Adaptation Perspectives Facing This New Climate Risk

The international community and Mediterranean countries must quickly adapt to this new climate reality. Land-use planning must integrate risks related to Mediterranean tropical cyclones, notably by avoiding construction in areas most exposed to flooding and landslides. Moreover, existing infrastructure will need to be reinforced to withstand stronger winds and heavier rainfall. Scientifically, monitoring sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions must be enhanced through satellites and ocean buoys. Finally, combating greenhouse gas emissions remains a fundamental lever to limit the worsening of the situation and reduce in the long term the frequency and intensity of these extreme phenomena.

In Summary

The Mediterranean basin, long spared from tropical cyclones, now sees its climate disrupted by these powerful storms, exacerbated by climate change. Recent events, such as storms Ianos, Daniel, and Jolina, testify to a worrying trend that directly threatens coastal populations. Issues related to forecasting, risk management, and infrastructure adaptation are at the heart of the challenges to be met. Faced with this new reality, increased mobilization of scientific, political, and local actors is essential to protect inhabitants and preserve Mediterranean ecosystems in a deeply changing climate context.