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Heatwave in Europe: Who is suffering, why inequalities and what are the forecasts

This summer, over 30,000 deaths linked to heatwaves have been recorded in Europe, mainly affecting vulnerable populations. Between satellite data, AI models like GraphCast and health alerts, discover the mechanisms, most affected areas and forecasts for the coming days.

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Rédaction Weather IA

lundi 28 septembre 2026 à 09:236 min
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Heatwave in Europe: Who is suffering, why inequalities and what are the forecasts

30,000 people have already died this summer in Europe due to an exceptional heatwave, a toll that far exceeds previous records. The victims are mainly low-income individuals, the very young, the elderly and chronic patients, revealing invisible but massive thermal inequality. According to a UN report, the actual number of deaths could still increase.

What's happening: deadly heatwave in Europe, figures and affected areas

Heatwaves that have swept across the continent since June have reached record temperatures, exceeding 40°C in southern France, Spain and Italy. National weather services, supported by Copernicus data, have reported persistent heat peaks for more than two weeks in the Rhône Valley, Catalonia and Sicily. In these areas, hospitals have reported a 250% increase in admissions for heatstroke and heart failure, a strong indicator of the direct impact of the phenomenon.

The most exposed populations are those living in poorly insulated housing, often without air conditioning, and in neighborhoods where paved surfaces amplify the urban heat island effect. In France, the departments of Southeast and Southwest have the highest mortality rates, with deaths concentrated in rural areas where access to healthcare is limited. Satellite data shows that artificial surfaces have absorbed up to 30% more energy than rural areas, exacerbating perceived temperature by several degrees.

The UN report indicates that the mortality burden is disproportionate: people living below the poverty line represent nearly 60% of deaths, while children under five and people over 75 account for more than 30% of the total. These figures highlight a climate injustice that overlaps with existing social inequalities.

Why: climate mechanisms and social inequalities

Extreme heatwaves are the result of a combination of atmospheric factors amplified by climate change. The narrowing of the thermal gradient between the equator and the poles, observed in ECMWF models, weakens the jet stream, allowing hot air masses to stagnate over Europe for several days. This stagnation creates an atmospheric blocking pattern that prevents nighttime cooling, thus increasing heat accumulation.

Predictive models based on machine learning, like GraphCast and Pangu-Weather, use deep neural networks to analyze billions of atmospheric data points, including temperature, humidity and wind measurements. Thanks to Copernicus satellite data, these models can anticipate heatwave peaks

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