Canada faces a 5°C increase by the end of the century: what do the new climate reports say?

In less than ten years, Canada will exceed the 1.5°C threshold, the lowest level set by the Paris Agreement, and models project a 5°C increase from pre-industrial levels by the end of the century if current commitments remain unchanged.

These findings come from two recent reports that highlight a significant gap between political promises and actual emission trajectories. The analysis combines satellite data, general circulation models like ECMWF, and national emission inventories, revealing an upward trend with no signs of slowing down.

Announcement details: who, what, precise figures

The first report, commissioned by Canada's Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, uses the latest atmospheric data series from Copernicus and projections from the GraphCast model to establish that Canada's average annual temperatures will exceed the 1.5°C threshold by 2035. The second document, produced by the Canadian Climate Research Centre, confirms that without additional mitigation measures, the country could experience a 5°C increase by 2100, double the Paris Agreement's target.

Both studies emphasize that energy sector CO₂ emissions have increased by 12% since 2015, while transport emissions have seen only a slight 3% decrease due to the gradual adoption of electric vehicles. Machine learning models trained on decades of observations show that current reduction scenarios are insufficient to contain warming.

Context: climate goals, current situation

Canada has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, as outlined in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). However, the reports indicate that current policies – such as carbon pricing and renewable energy incentives – have not generated the expected emission reductions. ECMWF model projections place Canada on a trajectory towards the most pessimistic scenario, RCP8.5.

International context adds further pressure: most major advanced economies are revising their contributions upwards while Canada falls short of the required commitments to keep global warming below 1.5°C. Copernicus data also shows amplification of climate extremes – more intense heatwaves and increased precipitation in the North – complicating adaptation measures.